WASHINGTON -- U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar, Chairman of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, delivered the following remarks today at a hearing to examine the Kyoto Protocol, a global warming treaty recently reached in Japan:
 
 In December, leaders from 150 countries gathered in Kyoto, Japan to address the issue of climate change.  The result, “the Kyoto Protocol,” has met with intense controversy.  It is unlikely to be ratified by the Senate in its present form.

 In preparation for Kyoto, the Senate passed the Hagel-Byrd resolution in July, urging the President not to sign any treaty which failed to include emissions limitations on developing countries.  However, the United States signed the Kyoto Protocol, with administration officials conceding that it does not include “meaningful participation” by the “key developing countries.”  China and other developing countries have reportedly expressed adamant opposition to limit even their rates of growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

  The national debate over the Protocol may force this nation to overcome its tendency to separate energy and environmental policies.  In reality, many of our environmental problems are related to our need for energy.  Changes in energy policy are essential to addressing environmental concerns.

 Events beyond our borders also have tremendous impact on American energy security and environmental interests.  As the economies and populations of China, India, South Korea, Mexico, Brazil and other key developing countries rapidly increase, so too will their need for energy.  Such growth will fuel the greenhouse gas problem, increase the world’s dependence on Persian Gulf oil and result in immense transfers of wealth to the Gulf region.  And as current events in Iraq remind us, dependence on oil from the unstable nations of the Persian Gulf exacts a substantial security cost.

 The United States imports 46 percent of its oil.  U.S. dependence on Middle Eastern oil will grow in coming years despite new discoveries in other regions of the world.  By 2020, the Energy Information Administration estimates that 65 percent of the world’s oil exports will come from the Persian Gulf.

    The United States currently emits 22 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases while generating 26 percent of the world’s wealth.  As our economy and population grow, so too
will our carbon emissions.  The Energy Information Administration projects  that U.S. carbon emissions will increase 34 percent from 1990 to 2010, assuming a very modest economic
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Lugar Statement on Global Warming
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growth rate of only 2.2 percent per year.  If economic growth is higher, our emissions growth is likely to be even greater.  We must find ways to address the climate change problem without suppressing our economic growth or hurting our businesses, farms and workers.

 At Kyoto, Administration negotiators agreed that we would reduce our  greenhouse gas emissions by 7 percent below 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012. To meet this target, which is only 10 to 14 years away, it is estimated that we must reduce our levels of greenhouse gases in 2010 by 30 percent or more from forecasted levels.  A 30 percent reduction would amount to approximately 560 million metric tons of carbon equivalents annually.

 Where will these reductions come from?

 According to the Energy Information Administration, a high technology option would produce reductions of only 79 million metric tons of carbon equivalent, which is a 4 percent reduction from projected 2010 levels.  There are also opportunities for increasing the carbon storage capacity of our forests and soils which administration estimates show might reduce our reduction obligations by a similar amount.

 The Administration is reportedly relying upon international trading of emissions and purchases of credits under the Clean Development Fund to account for a large portion of our reductions.  Russia and Ukraine are said to have “paper” emissions credits to sell because their levels of greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be lower in 2010 than they were in 1990.  If we cannot meet our obligations under Kyoto by ourselves, would we then purchase emission permits from the Russia?

 To address these many issues, I believe that the President should establish an interagency Energy and Environmental Security Task Force.  Such a task force should  include the National Security Council, the Council of Economic Advisors and high level representatives of pertinent agencies such as USDA, Energy, Transportation and the Treasury.  We cannot cope with any of our pending environmental or energy security problems without a new energy policy.

 We must also address the serious threat of worldwide deforestation.  Experts indicate that about 20 percent of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is due to the  elimination of carbon sinks in our soils and forests.  We are losing 30 million acres of tropical forests per year.  Yet the Kyoto Protocol may not allow the United States to count projects which we fund in developing nations to avoid deforestation and promote sustainable agriculture as part of our contribution to addressing the climate change problem.

 Today we look forward to the testimony of key administration officials involved in the negotiation and study of the global climate treaty.  We also welcome representatives from the agricultural community, the private sector and environmental groups to share their impressions of the Kyoto treaty and its effects on the agricultural economy.